Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships

Author: Clive William John Granger
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019877320X
Size: 55.19 MB
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This volume in the series Advanced Texts in Econometrics explains recent theoretical developments in the econometric modelling of relationships between different statistical series. Clive Granger and Timo Ter�svirta illustrate ways of using dynamic, multivariate analysis techniques to provide models of nonlinear relationships between variables. They pay particular attention to the case of a single dependent variable modelled by a few explanatory variables and the lagged dependent variable in nonlinear form. They also discuss the division of nonlinear relationships into parametric and nonparametric models. The developments detailed in this book will be useful to econometricians who need to construct or use models of nonlinear, dynamic, multivariate relationships, such as an investment or production function. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.

Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Author: Timo Teräsvirta
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 9780199587148
Size: 61.44 MB
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This book contains an extensive up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows the reader how to apply these models in practice. For thispurpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried outusing numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones.Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter isdevoted to state space models. As a whole, the book is an indispensable tool for researchers interested in nonlinear time series and is also suitable for teaching courses in econometrics and time series analysis.

Handbook Of Applied Economic Statistics

Author: Aman Ullah
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482269902
Size: 54.68 MB
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This work examines theoretical issues, as well as practical developments in statistical inference related to econometric models and analysis. This work offers discussions on such areas as the function of statistics in aggregation, income inequality, poverty, health, spatial econometrics, panel and survey data, bootstrapping and time series.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Author: C. W. J. Granger
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483273245
Size: 13.24 MB
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Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Nonlinear Time Series

Author: Jianqing Fan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387693958
Size: 77.17 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Of Economic And Financial Data

Author: Philip Rothman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461551293
Size: 61.21 MB
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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

Introduction To Agent Based Economics

Author: Mauro Gallegati
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128039035
Size: 69.85 MB
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Introduction to Agent-Based Economics describes the principal elements of agent-based computational economics (ACE). It illustrates ACE’s theoretical foundations, which are rooted in the application of the concept of complexity to the social sciences, and it depicts its growth and development from a non-linear out-of-equilibrium approach to a state-of-the-art agent-based macroeconomics. The book helps readers gain a better understanding of the limits and perspectives of the ACE models and their capacity to reproduce economic phenomena and empirical patterns. Reviews the literature of agent-based computational economics Analyzes approaches to agents’ expectations Covers one of the few large macroeconomic agent-based models, the Modellaccio Illustrates both analytical and computational methodologies for producing tractable solutions of macro ACE models Describes diffusion and amplification mechanisms Depicts macroeconomic experiments related to ACE implementations

State Space Models

Author: Yong Zeng
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461477891
Size: 30.43 MB
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State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals.

Adaptive Regression For Modeling Nonlinear Relationships

Author: George J. Knafl
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 331933946X
Size: 23.30 MB
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This book presents methods for investigating whether relationships are linear or nonlinear and for adaptively fitting appropriate models when they are nonlinear. Data analysts will learn how to incorporate nonlinearity in one or more predictor variables into regression models for different types of outcome variables. Such nonlinear dependence is often not considered in applied research, yet nonlinear relationships are common and so need to be addressed. A standard linear analysis can produce misleading conclusions, while a nonlinear analysis can provide novel insights into data, not otherwise possible. A variety of examples of the benefits of modeling nonlinear relationships are presented throughout the book. Methods are covered using what are called fractional polynomials based on real-valued power transformations of primary predictor variables combined with model selection based on likelihood cross-validation. The book covers how to formulate and conduct such adaptive fractional polynomial modeling in the standard, logistic, and Poisson regression contexts with continuous, discrete, and counts outcomes, respectively, either univariate or multivariate. The book also provides a comparison of adaptive modeling to generalized additive modeling (GAM) and multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) for univariate outcomes. The authors have created customized SAS macros for use in conducting adaptive regression modeling. These macros and code for conducting the analyses discussed in the book are available through the first author's website and online via the book’s Springer website. Detailed descriptions of how to use these macros and interpret their output appear throughout the book. These methods can be implemented using other programs.

The Economics Of Complex Spatial Systems

Author: A. Reggiani
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444600876
Size: 53.18 MB
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This book argues that complexity theory offers new departures for (spatial-) economic modelling. It offers a broad overview of recent advances in non-linear dynamics (catastrophe theory, chaos theory, evolutionary theory and so forth) and illustrates the relevance of this new paradigm on the basis of several illustrations in the area of space-economy. The empirical limitations - inherent in the use of non-linear dynamic systems approaches - are also addressed. Next, the application potential of biocomputing (in particular, neural networks and evolutionary algorithms) is stressed, while various empirical model results are presented. The book concludes with an agenda for further research.