The Cointegrated Var Model

Author: Katarina Juselius
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191622966
Size: 22.94 MB
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This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations of applicability. This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that good econometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure full understanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.

Likelihood Based Inference In Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

Author: Søren Johansen
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 0198774508
Size: 63.55 MB
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This monograph is concerned with the statistical analysis of multivariate systems of non-stationary time series of type I. It applies the concepts of cointegration and common trends in the framework of the Gaussian vector autoregressive model.

Workbook On Cointegration

Author: Peter Reinhard Hansen
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780198776086
Size: 10.82 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This workbook consists of exercises taken from Likelihood-Based Inferences in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models by Soren Johansen, together with worked-out solutions. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.

Var Models In Macroeconomics

Author: Prof Thomas Fomby
Publisher: Emerald Group Pub Limited
ISBN: 9781781907528
Size: 57.64 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are among the most widely used econometric tools in the fields of macroeconomics and financial economics. Much of what we know about the response of the economy to macroeconomic shocks and about how various shocks have contributed to the evolution of macroeconomic and financial aggregates is based on VAR models. VAR models also have been used successfully for economic and business forecasting, for modeling risk and volatility, and for the construction of forecast scenarios. Since the introduction of VAR models by C.A. Sims in 1980, the VAR methodology has continuously evolved. Even today important extensions and reinterpretations of the VAR framework are being developed. Examples include VAR models for mixed-frequency data, VAR models as approximations to DSGE models, factor-augmented VAR models, new tools for the identification of structural shocks in VAR models, panel VAR approaches, and time-varying parameter VAR models. This volume collects contributions from some of the leading VAR experts in the world on VAR methods and applications. Each paper highlights and synthesizes a new development in this literature in a way that is accessible to practitioners, to graduate students, and to readers in other fields.

Money Stock Prices And Central Banks

Author: Marcel Wiedmann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783790826470
Size: 40.54 MB
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This contribution applies the cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model to analyze the long-run behavior and short-run dynamics of stock markets across five developed and three emerging economies. The main objective is to check whether liquidity conditions play an important role in stock market developments. As an innovation, liquidity conditions enter the analysis from three angles: in the form of a broad monetary aggregate, the interbank overnight rate and net capital flows, which represent the share of global liquidity that arrives in the respective country. A second aim is to understand whether central banks are able to influence the stock market.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author: Lutz Kilian
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108186874
Size: 15.72 MB
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Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.

Model Reduction Methods For Vector Autoregressive Processes

Author: Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642170293
Size: 67.94 MB
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1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities is now well established and has found its way into various textbooks including inter alia Llitkepohl (1991), Hamilton (1994), Enders (1995), Hendry (1995) and Greene (2002). The unrestricted VAR model provides a general and very flexible framework that proved to be useful to summarize the data characteristics of economic time series. Unfortunately, the flexibility of these models causes severe problems: In an unrestricted VAR model, each variable is expressed as a linear function of lagged values of itself and all other variables in the system.

Applied Macroeconometrics

Author: Carlo A. Favero
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780198296850
Size: 38.93 MB
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Until the 1970s, there was a consensus in applied macroeconometrics, both regarding the theoretical foundation and the empirical specification of macroeconometric modelling, commonly known as the Cowles Commission approach. This is no longer the case: the Cowles Commission approach broke down in the 1970s, replaced by three prominent competing methods of empirical research: the LSE (London School of Economics) approach, the VAR approach, and the intertemporal optimization/Real Business Cycle approach. This book discusses and illustrates the empirical research strategy of these three alternative approaches by interpreting them as different proposals to solve problems observed in the Cowles Commission approach.